What this means for the market
Every El Niño plays out differently, and the Met Office is careful to caveat its own forecasts, so this isn’t a call to panic about a single autumn’s weather. It is, though, a strong enough signal, arriving in a flood-exposed property market already under financial strain, with models that both WTW experts say still struggle to capture how one loss triggers the next, to justify insurers, brokers and lenders stress-testing their own assumptions before the wet weather arrives rather than after.
